Aquino, Pangilinan, PDP bets biggest gainers in OCTA pre-election survey

Metro Manila, Philippines - Opposition candidates Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, as well as PDP Laban bets Bato dela Rosa and Phillip Salvador were among the biggest gainers in a pre-election senatorial survey released by OCTA Research two weeks into the polls.

In a survey released on Monday, April 28, Aquino’s voting preference rose by 4.3 percentage points, boosting his rank to the 9th to 18th margin. He previously placed 12th to 18th in the March survey.

Pangilinan gained three points, placing him in the 10th to 18th spot, an improvement from his 12th to 19th rank last month.

Both candidates are now within the winning circle, or the so-called “Magic 12.”

The midterm elections will be held on Monday, May 12.

For political analyst Jean Franco, Pangilinan and Aquino's silence on the arrest and detention of former President Rodrigo Duterte at the International Criminal Court was a strategic move.

“I guess the rise in the numbers of Kiko and Bam attest to the fact that they’ve been courting groups beyond their bases, beyond their kakampink base…They also did not issue statements regarding the arrest of Duterte if I remember it correctly. I think it was strategic,” she told NewsWatch Plus.

Dela Rosa and Salvador – both allies of former President Rodrigo Duterte – each saw a 2.4-point increase in their ratings. The re-electionist lawmaker secured the 3rd to 10th rank, while the actor-turned-politician was at 12 to 20.

Meanwhile, suffering huge drops are re-electionist Senator Bong Revilla losing over 6 percentage points and Las Piñas Rep. Camille Villar facing a 4.6 point decline.

The survey was held on April 10 to 16, a month before the May 12 polls, with 1,200 respondents and a ±3% margin of error.

Still at the top spot is re-electionist lawmaker Bong Go, followed by siblings Erwin and Ben Tulfo – brothers of sitting senator Raffy.

Also at the winning circle were administration candidates Tito Sotto, Ping Lacson, Pia Cayetano, Lito Lapid, and Abby Binay.

Sharing the 10th to 18th rank with Pangilinan and Villar is former Senator Manny Pacquiao.

Newcomers Benhur Abalos and Willie Revillame both placed 11th to 19th, tied with reelectionist senators Imee Marcos and Francis Tolentino.

Franco said Vice President Sara Duterte's endorsement of the presidential sister may not be enough to improve her standing. Marcos released a campaign advertisement featuring the vice president’s support on April 14, which was covered by the survey period.

“I guess it's the fact that people cannot figure her out because she's neither here nor there. If you're a Marcos supporter, because the entire election is being framed as a battle between Duterte and BBM. And if that is the issue, then…if you are a voter, how do you make sense of it?” she said.

As candidates enter the final stretch of the campaign, the analyst said it is important now to “sharpen their messaging.”

“Take a look at the survey as a guide to find out areas where they can go to boost the awareness and to court potential voters,” Franco added.