Two vice presidential endorsements, different outcomes - analyst

Metro Manila, Philippines - Two vice presidential endorsements may have different outcomes in the tight race to the Senate less than three weeks before the May 12 polls, a political analyst said.

In an interview with NewsWatch Plus, Dennis Coronacion, political analyst and UST political science department chairperson, said Vice President Sara Duterte’s endorsement of re-electionist Sen. Imee Marcos may boost her poor survey ranking.

On the other hand, he said former Vice President Leni Robredo’s support for administration bets Manny Pacquiao and Benhur Abalos may weaken the opposition's limited chances in the Senate.

Sara endorsement matters

Coronacion said the Duterte camp has so far been successful in the narrative by “turning things around through the use of propaganda” since the government surrendered former President Rodrigo Duterte to the International Criminal Court in March.

“So nag-resonate niya. So yung kanilang narrative na the arrest that was made was illegal. Isa yun. So to the point na sinasabi nila that the former president was kidnapped,” he told NewsWatch Plus.

“Nag-gain attraction yun over time until it has become yung awayan between the administration and the Duterte family has become an important election issue. Actually it has become the primary election issue,” Coronacion added.

[Translation: It resonated to the public. The narrative that Duterte’s arrest was illegal. That’s one. To the point that they even said the former president was kidnapped…That gained traction over time until the rift between the Marcos administration and the Duterte family became an important election issue. Actually, it became the primary election issue.]

In a local rally in Manila on Thursday, April 24, Vice President Sara Duterte even told the campaign crowd her father was “stolen” by the government.

Coronacion said Duterte’s recent endorsements have reflected in Sen. Imee Marcos’ standing, noting a significant improvement in her survey numbers.

In the Social Weather Stations survey held on April 11-15, Marcos jumped to 13th to 14th spot from 16th in March. The lawmaker released a campaign advertisement that featured Duterte’s support on April 14.

The presidential sister quit her brother’s Alyansa Para Sa Bagong Pilipinas senatorial slate in March over disagreements with the ex-president’s arrest. She also launched an investigation on the matter.

Meanwhile, Coronacion said the outcome of Duterte's endorsement of Las Piñas Rep. Camille Villar does not reflect yet on her survey numbers.

“Kay Congresswoman Camille Villar, parang hindi pa natin nakikitahan ng positive or rather improvement. Kasi I think aside from being viewed by the Duterte supporters as yung kanyang image is similar to the image of Sen. Imee Marcos yung parang namamangka sa dalawang ilog, she also has her own setbacks sa campaign niya,” he said.

[Translation: As for Congresswoman Camille Villar, it seems we haven’t seen any positive developments or improvements yet. I think that aside from being perceived by Duterte supporters as having an image similar to Senator Imee Marcos, like someone trying to paddle in two rivers at once, she also faces some setbacks in her own campaign.]

Robredo magic

While Duterte’s support may add value to struggling candidates, Coronacion said it may not be the same with former Vice President Leni Robredo.

Robredo recently endorsed administration bets, Pacquiao and Abalos, prompting criticisms from her supporters.

Coronacion said it may only split votes for the candidates that Robredo supports, namely former senators Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino, who are also struggling to enter the winning circle in pre-election surveys.

“So itong mga ito kasi they're not doing well in the surveys. So ngayon sasamahan mo pa ng mga kandidato from the opposite camp, from the administration slate who are not also doing well. Nasa bottom end rin sila…So ang magiging effect ng kanyang endorsement is that all of the senatorial candidates that she has endorsed will be competing with each other,” he said.

[Translation: These candidates aren’t performing well in the surveys. And now, they’re alongside candidates from the opposing side - from the administration slate who also aren’t doing well and are ranking near the bottom. So the effect of her endorsement is that all the senatorial candidates she’s supporting will end up competing against one another.]

In the April SWS survey, Pacquiao was ranked 12th, while Abalos, Pangilinan, and Aquino were at the bottom of the winning circle.

Coronacion said candidates may still have time to secure votes from the undecided voters in the final stretch of the campaign.

“So baka sila yung paggalingan na tinatawag na swing vote…So bukod dun sa kanilang mga political base, I think they should also go out to seek the support of those outside their political base,” he said.

[Translation: So they might be where the so-called swing vote will come from. Aside from relying on their political base, I think they should also reach out and try to gain support from those outside their usual supporters.]