La Niña to bring storms in first quarter - PAGASA

Metro Manila, Philippines - A climate pattern associated with above-normal rainfall is present in the region, with the state weather bureau warning of “increased chance” of storm activities in the first quarter.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said it has been on watch since last year for La Niña conditions to occur.

“With this development, higher chances of above-normal rainfall in January – February - March 2025 season are expected, which may cause floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides,” PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando said on Monday, Jan. 6.

“Furthermore, an increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the period is likely,” Servando said.

La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, which has caused droughts and dry spells in parts of the country, affecting billions worth of agricultural output. El Niño ended in June last year.

PAGASA earlier said that during a La Niña episode, oceans get warmer and could trigger severe tropical cyclones.

“Periods of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that started in September 2024 continue to persist and further strengthened reaching the La Niña conditions threshold in December 2024, as shown by the recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators,” Servando said in a statement.

He said La Niña is likely to continue in the first quarter, citing a number of climate models.

PAGASA previously said the impending La Niña would be “weak” and “short-lived.”