China’s power play in the West Philippine Sea: How Duterte’s ICC arrest 'fuels Beijing’s strategy'

Metro Manila, Philippines - The arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte by the International Criminal Court (ICC) has sent shockwaves across the nation, but its effects reach far beyond Manila. As Duterte faces trial for alleged crimes against humanity, China is seizing the moment—intensifying its 'aggression' in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) and allegedly 'flooding social media with disinformation' to distract and divide Filipinos while advancing its territorial ambitions.

China exploits domestic turmoil

With the Philippines embroiled in political turmoil, China has wasted no time tightening its grip on contested waters. Recent satellite images obtained by Reuters reveal that China has deployed two long-range H-6 bombers near the fiercely contested Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal on March 29, escalating tensions in the region. The Chinese military forces launched a major patrol accusing the Philippines of “provoking instability” through joint patrols with allies like the US.

“China is trying to take advantage of the situation,” Don McLain Gill, a lecturer and geopolitics analyst at De La Salle University, told NewsWatch Plus in an exclusive interview.

“This is part of the overarching gray zone activities that China carries out against the Philippines, with a particular interest in ensuring that it is able to bend Manila’s political will toward having a more secured position on the West Philippine Sea,” Gill said.

China’s strategy, he explained, hinges on keeping Manila distracted with internal conflicts while solidifying its control over the disputed waters.

Weaponizing disinformation

Beyond military maneuvers, China is waging a more insidious battle—a disinformation campaign aimed at eroding public trust in the Philippine government.

According to experts, China-linked networks have intensified their manipulation of social media narratives, echoing pro-Duterte rhetoric while undermining the Marcos administration’s stance on national sovereignty.

Gill noted that these actions aim to divert public focus from Chinese incursions, creating an illusion of domestic chaos while Beijing strengthens its grip on Philippine waters.

Filipinos push back

Despite these tactics, the Filipino public remains steadfast in its demand for stronger action against China’s aggression. A February 2025 Social Weather Stations (SWS) poll found that 77% of Filipinos support strengthening foreign alliances to defend the country’s territorial rights, including joint patrols and military training with the US and other partners.

Rjen Lopez, a first-time voter from Lucena City, Quezon, underscored the stakes.

“Kailangan palakasin ng mga lider ang kakayahan ng militar upang masiguro ang seguridad sa ating bansa. Ito ay maaaring gawin sa pamamagitan ng modernisasyon ng mga kagamitan at pagsasanay ng mga tauhan kung paano natin ipaglalaban ito,” he said.

[TRANSLATION: Leaders must strengthen the military’s capabilities to ensure national security. This can be done by modernizing equipment and training personnel on how to defend our territory.]

Moreover, University of the Philippines student Franz Aaron Varias echoed the sentiment, emphasizing that policymakers must enact stronger laws to protect the West Philippine Sea.

“Kung hindi ito mapoprotektahan, malalagay sa alanganin ang ating likas-yaman, ekonomiya, at kasarinlan bilang isang bansa,” he said.

[TRANSLATION: If this is not protected, our natural resources, economy, and sovereignty as a nation will be put at risk.]

Gill pointed out that public sentiment aligns with the government’s push to defend the West Philippine Sea based on the international law.

“This also demonstrates the limitations of Beijing’s malign information operations in the country that seek to delegitimize and undermine the Marcos Jr. administration’s efforts to forge robust like-minded defense partnerships to push back against China’s expansionist ambitions in the West Philippine Sea,” he said.

In addition, Atty. Justin Sucgang, Associate Professor at De La Salle University’s Tañada-Diokno School of Law, emphasized that the survey results reaffirm Filipinos’ strong support for an independent foreign policy.

“Not the equivocation under the Duterte administration, which simply means embracing China. Filipinos are now more open to explore partnerships with other like-minded nations, even beyond the US, that remain steadfast to the rule of law,” he said.

High-stakes battle for the West Philippine Sea

As China ramps up its gray-zone operations—combining military pressure with digital subversion—Manila is countering with stronger security alliances. The Philippines is set to deepen defense ties with the US, Japan, and Australia while exploring new security partnerships with France, New Zealand, and Canada.

On Friday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to Philippine sovereignty, announcing plans to deploy advanced anti-ship missile systems in the country as part of an intensified Indo-Pacific security strategy.

“We will achieve peace through strength. We do not seek war; we seek peace. But those who long for peace must prepare for war. And we stand united shoulder to shoulder,” Hegseth said.

China’s recent aggressive response only confirms that these efforts are working, according to De La Salle University Professor Renato de Castro.

“The fact na nagre-react ‘yung China, meaning effective ito. Naapektuhan siya. Hindi lang siya natatakot. Talagang nagagalit siya dahil tinatakot natin sila. Kung matakot man siya o hindi," De Castro said during the Saturday forum in Quezon City.

[TRANSLATION: The fact that China is reacting means it's working. They're not just affected — they're angry. It’s not just fear; they’re truly outraged because we’re making them feel threatened.]

Duterte’s ICC arrest has created a political spectacle, but beneath the surface, it has opened the door for China to escalate its power plays in Philippine waters.

A different take

However, Sucgang offers a different perspective, arguing that Duterte’s arrest won’t necessarily escalate tensions in the West Philippine Sea. He pointed out that confrontations had already surged when President Marcos Jr. took office.

“When PBBM assumed the presidency, it appears that there have been more incidents already. Tensions are already high to begin with,” he said, explaining that “when Marcos won, China had already started planning for contingencies.”

He also suggested a deeper geopolitical play at work within the Philippine government. “If you look at the holders of the highest positions of the Philippine government, they appear to be proxies of the world powers. The President is friendlier to the US, while the Vice President is obviously a Chinese lackey,” Sucgang said.

“With the VP supportive of China, it is to China's interest that Sara succeeds. But since Sara is just a proxy/pawn, she is dispensable especially if she becomes a liability. And indeed, she is, with an impeachment trial looming,” said Sucgang.

Sucgang believes Beijing will adopt a dual-track strategy: keeping its support for Duterte-Carpio while preparing a new political proxy.

“China will pursue a parallel strategy of still supporting Sara for she still holds the second highest government position, while scouting for a new proxy. The proxy need not be a Duterte though. S/he must only be winnable,” he pointed out.

However, “The sudden surge in disinformation that we are seeing now is in keeping with that parallel strategy. For China, Sara and the Dutertes still have utility. China will still help, Sara is still the VP. But the assistance, I believe, will not be an all-out support,” he added.

"That is why if the rumors that China denied the request for asylum or at least some arrangement where Duterte would be allowed to stay in China (regardless of the status) were true, then it goes to what I'm saying that China will not pledge full support. They cannot be seen to be interfering directly with domestic political issue. Plus, they want to maintain the facade that they are rules-based and adhere to international norms. So expect more of disinformation."

The battle for sovereignty: A nation’s defining moment

The fight for the West Philippine Sea is no longer just about territorial disputes—it’s a battle for the country’s sovereignty, waged both at sea and in the digital sphere.

For Filipinos, the message is clear: unity and vigilance are the country’s strongest weapons against China’s military aggression and its web of disinformation.

“It needs a whole-of-a-nation approach that involves various agencies of the government but also empowering civil society to push back against all negative fronts that are taking place at sea or within the country or in the digital space,” Gill said.

With the 2025 midterm elections approaching, Filipinos face a defining choice: will they elect leaders who will stand firm in defending the country’s rightful place in the West Philippine Sea? Or will Beijing’s distractions succeed?