Phivolcs warns of possible Mt. Kanlaon magmatic eruption

Metro Manila, Philippines — The likelihood of Kanlaon Volcano on Negros Island erupting for the first time since 1902 has increased given the current unrest, an official from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said on Wednesday, Sept. 11.

Mariton Bornas, Phivolcs’s volcano monitoring and eruption prediction division chief, said the latest monitoring of the bureau showed "anomalous" readings.

“Dahil po mataas po ang mga monitoring parameters natin, medyo anomalous po talaga ang mga ito, tumataas po ang tsansa na magkaroon po tayo ng magmatic eruption,” Bornas told the government briefing “Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon.”

[Translation: Because of the high level of monitoring parameters, these are anomalous, there is an increasing chance of magmatic eruption.]

But Bornas said Phivolcs has yet to determine the actual hour, day, week, or month when the magmatic eruption will happen — something that existing monitoring and forecasting systems can’t do.

She said the bureau can only forecast scenarios based on daily monitoring.

The Phivolcs official also explained Kanlaon usually has steam-driven eruptions and the 1902 magmatic eruption was weak. Lava flows — and not explosive eruptions — from the volcano have been recorded, she added.

“Kailangan po ay araw-araw natin itong inaanalisa at ini-evaluate lalung-lalo na po sa isang bulkang katulad ng Kanlaon Volcano na matagal pong hindi pumuputok ng magma, hindi nagpuputok ng magma ‘no,” the volcanologist said.

[Translation: We need to conduct daily analysis and evaluation, especially on a volcano like Kanlaon which has not spewed magma for a long time.]

The local government of Canlaon City has ordered the mandatory evacuation of residents in high-risk areas near the volcano. Around 92 families, or 301 residents, from four barangays have been evacuated as of Wednesday morning. 

Class suspensions were implemented on Tuesday and Wednesday, while a temporary closure of tourist spots was also declared. 

Phivolcs said sulfuric fumes have been reported in Barangay San Miguel in La Carlota City; Barangays Masulog and Pula in Canlaon City; Barangay Codcod in San Carlos City; and Barangay Inolingan in Moises Padilla.

“The public is reminded that Alert Level 2 (increasing unrest) prevails over Kanlaon, but that current activity may lead to eruptive unrest and an increase in the Alert Level,” Phivolcs said in a bulletin.

Alert Level 3 would mean an expanded area needed to be evacuated, Bornas said.

Phivolcs warned locals to prepare, be vigilant, and avoid entering the four-kilometer-radius permanent danger zone.

Aside from hundreds of volcano tectonic earthquakes, Bornas said emissions of volcanic gas at Mount Kanlaon hit an average of 9,958 tons per day on Tuesday. This could already be compared to Mayon’s eruptive sulfur dioxide emission, she added.

Phivolcs on Wednesday evening reported that volcanic gas emissions averaged 11,556 tons per day, the highest record since monitoring started in 2009.