2025-2028 growth targets factor in ‘uncertainties’ — DBCC

Metro Manila, Philippines — The inter-agency economic policy-making body has revised the country’s growth target range for 2025 to 2028 “because of so much uncertainty.”

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) narrowed the economic growth target this year to a range of 6-6.5% from the previous 6-7%.

In a news conference on Monday, Dec. 2, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said the country could “realistically” hit 6% for the year.

“In particular, we expect the Philippine economy to bounce back during the last quarter, given the anticipated increase in holiday spending, continued disaster recovery efforts, low inflation, and a robust labor market,” Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman also said, reading the joint statement.

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For the third quarter, economic expansion slowed to 5.2% year-on-year due to the farm output slump. This brought the average growth rate to 5.8%. 

But for fiscal year 2025 and up to 2028, the DBCC widened the growth target to 6-8%.

The previous target for next year was 6.5%-7.5%, while 2026 to 2028 was 6.5%-8%.

“We are moving in a more uncertain world, both domestic and external,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said.

Balisacan said domestic factors include natural calamities, while external issues include new policies of the incoming Trump administration.

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“With [the] CREATE MORE [Act], probably you can go 7% or maybe even higher. But what we say is the worst case for the Philippines for next year is roughly 6%,” Recto said, referring to the law lowering corporate taxes to attract businesses and investments.

Macroeconomic assumptions

The DBCC also revisited the inflation rate target. For 2024, the committee has a 3.1%-3.3% assumption from the previous 3%-4%.

The exports growth is seen at 4% this year, down from 5%.

The peso is seen to average P57 to P57.50 against the dollar this year, from the previous wider band of P55 to P57. The DBCC attributed this to “sustained remittance growth, recovery in travel services, and growing BPO (business process outsourcing) revenues.”

The foreign exchange rate assumption for 2025 is P56 to P58 to a dollar.