Phivolcs sees two types of possible destructive Kanlaon eruption

Metro Manila, Philippines — Government volcanologists have in mind two possible types of destructive eruption at Mt. Kanlaon in Negros island, which has no history of catastrophic explosion.

Ma. Antonio Bornas, chief of the volcano monitoring and eruption prediction division of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), said Kanlaon’s activity would either progress to a more explosive eruption or a lava flow eruption whose impact could take months or years.

She said a worst-case scenario would require raising the warning a notch higher, or Alert Level 4, which means a hazardous eruption could occur within hours or days and the danger zone may be expanded up to 10 kilometers from the summit crater or active vent.

The highest alert level is 5, which means a life-threatening eruption is in progress, and danger zones may be extended up to 14 kilometers as the eruption progresses.

“Highly destructive, malawak na areas po ang maapektuhan at ito po ay mauuwi sa mas malawakang evacuation po ng ating mga kababayan diyan sa paligid ng bulkan,” she told NewsWatch Plus on Tuesday, Dec. 10. She added the agency hopes it would be short-lived.

[Translation: The explosive eruption would be highly destructive, and more areas would be affected that would mean wider coverage of evacuation.]

Bornas said volcanic activity could also progress to a lava flow eruption that might take place for months or even years.

“Maraming komunidad na nasa southern flanks po ng bulkan… nasa middle slopes po yung mga komunidad diyan. Mataas po ang tiyansa matakpan ng lava flows ang mga ‘yan,” Bornas said.

[Translation: Many communities are in the southern flanks of the volcano, others are in the middle slopes. There is a high chance that the communities would be covered by lava flows.]

“So, ang mangyayari po after ng matagal na panahon ng displacement ng mga ating kababayan, wala na po silang uuwian na pamayanan dahil hindi naman po natin matitirahan agad ang lava flow,” she explained.

[Translation: After a long time of displacement, affected residents cannot go back to their communities as you cannot live on lava flows.]

She also said the area would not be suitable for agriculture, a primary source of livelihood for locals.

“Marami pong possibility and lahat po ng klase ng eruption ay meron pong dire consequences para sa ating mga kababayan,” Bornas said.

[Translation: There will be many possibilities and all types of eruption would have fire consequences for the public.]

Kanlaon is now on Alert Level 3 or a hazardous eruption could occur in weeks and the danger zone is up to six kilometers from the summit crater or active vent.

No eruption blueprint

Bornas said Kanlaon has no record of high level of unrest.

“Wala tayong blueprint pagdating po sa pagputok po ng Kanlaon Volcano [We don't have a blueprint on the eruptions of Kanlaon Volcano],” Bornas said.

She said Phivolcs upgraded for the first time Kanlaon’s warning to Alert Level 3 after a magmatic eruption on Monday afternoon.